“The damage of Bolsonaro’s Presidency is expansive—but it is not necessarily set in stone. Quick, wide-ranging action to slow rates of deforestation and return restore lands could help reverse this damage,” Ed Atkins, environmental and energy policy specialist at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment, told Newsweek.

“We are lucky with Lula: We can gauge what he might do now from his track record,” said Atkins.

“Lula’s government has argued that it was his previous spell as president that saw a dramatic drop in deforestation in Brazil. Such a drop, of close to 80 percent compared to previous rates, is one of the primary drivers of Brazil’s reputation as a leader in climate action. A reputation that Bolsonaro has trashed.

“Lula’s campaign has pledged to repeat these achievements—enforcing the Forest code, tackling illegal deforestation, and investing in reforestation. If these pledges are kept, Lula’s election will hopefully lead to a downward spiral for deforestation rates.”

The Forest Code—neglected by Bolsonaro during his years in office—is a legislation that requires landowners to set aside and protect a certain proportion of forest and restore land that may have previously been deforested.

But while Atkins is also positive that a Lula government will lead to “a dramatic drop in deforestation,” he thinks we should still look at the newly elected president with a critical eye.

“Whilst the governments of Lula and his successor Dilma Rousseff did reduce deforestation, they also enacted policies that damaged the environment: building mega-dams, expanding oil extraction, and supporting the expansion of the beef industry. All with environmental impacts.”

Following up on all his campaign pledges might also be a struggle for Lula, as Brazil is in a much more difficult situation now than it was during the time he was first in power.

“Upon taking office, Lula faces numerous challenges and policy priorities. From expanding education to tackling dramatic inequality, there always remains a possibility that environmental action falls down the list of priorities,” said Atkins.

“This cannot be allowed to happen. Campaigners and observers must hold Lula to his promises—and the global community must support him in fulfilling them.”

The fund was deemed as successful—until many countries including Norway and Germany stopped contributing in 2019 in protest of the surging deforestation in the rainforest. The project was then unilaterally halted by Bolsonaro, who said the fund had been suspended while he reviewed its governance structure.

A final ruling on the case is expected on November 3, Reuters reported.

“Since his election, Jair Bolsonaro and his government consistently sought to weaken environmental laws and protections and weaken the agencies that monitor and police deforestation,” Atkins said.

“They have also, through their words and policies, legitimized environmental crimes. This has included government policies to legalize illegally occupied land and weaken the protection of Indigenous lands. This was part of a concerted policy to ‘run the cattle’ through Brazilian environmental protection to open lands for mining and agriculture.”

According to data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), almost 16,000 square miles have been cleared out under Bolsonaro’s presidency in the past four years.

Wildfires, which have raised international concern and criticism in recent years, have burned 27,973 square miles of the rainforest in 2019, and 29,884 in 2020.

Thousands of fires occur in the region every year—and yet their numbers increased during Bolsonaro’s presidency.

“We don’t know if that tipping point could be brought forward by climate change, and therefore we don’t know what the percentage is,” said Berenguer. “The more deforestation we have, the faster we are running through this dark tunnel towards this tipping point.”

In his victory speech, Lula pledged to fight “for zero deforestation.”

Update, 11/1/2022 5:15 a.m. ET: This article was updated to include comments from experts Erika Berenguer and Rodrigo Medeiros.