Right now, the two countries are drifting toward an adversarial relationship. Instead of concentrating on areas of cooperation, the focus has been excessively on the irritations. The problems are real and substantive: human-rights abuses; the bullying of Taiwan and Hong Kong; mounting trade deficits and violations of intellectual-property rights. These demand a firm response in the context of the critical question: what kind of China does America want?
Above all, we want a China that is a responsible member of the international community on such crucial matters as nuclear nonproliferation and the prevention of dissemination of weapons of mass destruction. But it won’t behave constructively in world affairs if it’s just handed a list of demands. It must be involved in shaping the post-cold-war era. And this means welcoming China to forums that are defining nbthe future world: the World Trade Organization, the Missile Technology Control Regime and even the G-7.
America needs China to contribute to regional stability in such trouble spots as North Korea, the East and South China seas and South Asia. Beijing will be obstreperous unless its own security concerns are acknowledged.
It’s deeply in our interest for China to help foster worldwide economic growth by opening its markets and by entering other markets in nondisruptive fashion. Within a generation, the Chinese economy will be approaching the size of America’s; given its global impact, China must rapidly acquire the institutional means to regulate its economy well. Otherwise, the wide oscillations in its business cycle and the lawlessness of its domestic commercial practices will disrupt the international economy.
China’s cooperation is essential to address such global problems as environmental degradation, organized crime and uncontrolled population migration. . None of these problems can be adequately addressed without China’s participation. Assistance will have to be provided, for example, for China to increase its energy efficiency.
China must keep its commitment to permit Hong Kong to retain its political and economic system after 1997, and to achieve a peaceful reconciliation with Taiwan. The basis for agreement exists: a credible Taiwan commitment not to unilaterally seek independence; a credible Chinese commitment not to use force against Taiwan and, under Beijing’s sponsorship, Taiwanese participation in all international organizations as much more than a province but less than a separate country. Political conditions in Beijing and Taipei make it difficult to seize the opportunity before them. But the United States has an urgent interest in encouraging both parties to resume their dialogue and to solve practical problems on which the prosperity of Taiwan and the uninterrupted modernization of the mainland depend–namely, to arrange direct air and shipping links between Taiwan and the mainland after the Hong Kong intermediary reverts to the mainland.
China cannot play the roles the United States seeks unless it is effectively and humanely governed. Its government must be unified, stable and responsive to the needs and yearnings of its people. Many Chinese leaders recognize their need to progress–for example, by fostering the rule of law and an independent judiciary; enhancing civilian control of the military; improving the central government’s banking and revenue systems and strengthening representative assemblies. Rather than stigmatizing and sanctioning China, the United States should assist those on the mainland who are working to change things.
China’s own interests largely coincide with America’s wish list. And Japan’s and South Korea’s interests toward China for the most part converge with American objectives. China’s rise in regional and world affairs need not lead to Sino-American hostility.
America will inevitably affect China’s future behavior. If its leaders are threatened and demeaned, and their interests ignored, they will surely behave increasingly in disruptive fashion, as has been the trend since 1989. But if the United States engages them, the prospects will be somewhat brighter.
Let there be no illusion. China’s rise will still prove difficult. Including this vast and powerful country in international affairs confronts America with enormous challenges. But approaching China with a constructive agenda offers the best chance of gaining its cooperation. Washington pursued this course until recently, and it proved successful. It yielded democracy and prosperity for Taiwan, rapid economic growth for China and economic and strategic benefits for the United States.
The Clinton administration should undertake four steps to resume that course: enunciate a coherent China policy; review our relations with China through a high-level visit; outline to Taipei our expectations about its future conduct and designate a high-level administration official to coordinate China policy.
